IDC predicts PC shipments to decline 11.3% in 2026, MacBook Neo bucks trend

[ Gearbest Technology News]According to IDC’s latest forecast, the global PC market will continue to shrink in 2026, with full-year shipments expected to decline by 11.3%, with a year-on-year decline of 20% in the fourth quarter, and this weak trend will continue until the end of 2027. Memory shortage is the main reason for the market downturn. It has previously affected the supply of Apple Mac mini and Mac Studio, and is now further impacting the overall PC industry.

MacBook Neo

IDC data shows that PC shipments increased by 3% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, but this was mainly due to consumers and businesses purchasing in advance to avoid subsequent price increases and tight supply. This growth is considered “deceptive.” The positive momentum was partially continued in the second quarter, but is expected to gradually deteriorate in subsequent quarters. IDC predicts that the average selling price of PCs will increase by 17% in 2026. Even if memory capacity expands in the next two years, prices will be difficult to fall back to 2025 levels. TrendForce previously warned that soaring memory and CPU costs may push the price of mainstream notebooks up nearly 40% this year.

Against this background, the MacBook Neo launched by Apple in March, with a starting price of US$599, equipped with an A18 Pro chip and 8GB of memory, has entered the sub-US$700 notebook market with an annual shipment of approximately 75 million units (accounting for nearly 40% of overall notebook sales). This segment has long been dominated by Windows and Chrome OS devices. IDC said strong demand for MacBook Neo exceeded expectations, prompting it to raise its notebook shipment forecast. The model shipped 1.1 million units in the first quarter and achieved the best launch performance of a new Mac in recent years after being sold for only about three weeks.

IDC noted that the MacBook Neo puts “real pressure on the entire PC ecosystem,” and it expects competitors to respond with new chips, Microsoft's more efficient operating system, and aggressive promotions. This low-priced Mac not only reduces the overall price increase trend, but also maintains the survival space of some low-cost notebooks. However, memory shortages have forced most PC manufacturers to switch to higher-priced systems or cut configurations to protect prices. Apple has gone in the opposite direction – high-end Mac mini and Mac Studio have experienced configuration reductions and shipment delays. According to Taiwanese technology columnist Tim Culpan, Apple is considering adding new colors of MacBook Neo to buffer potential price increases, and may even cancel the $599 entry-level model to cope with rising chip and DRAM costs.