Unfavorable start to 2026: China’s laptop online market volume drops by 40%

[ Gearbest Technology News]On March 26, the latest data from Luotu Technology showed that from January to February 2026, China’s online notebook computer market encountered a “late spring cold”, with sales of only 947,000 units, a year-on-year plunge of 40.5%, and sales of 5.99 billion yuan, a drop of also as high as 40.5%.

lenovo notebook

The market downturn is not caused by a single factor. The high base and overdraft effects brought about by the state subsidy policy in 2025, coupled with the weakening of subsidies in 2026, form the first pressure. More importantly, global AI servers have occupied DRAM/NAND production capacity, causing memory and hard drive prices to skyrocket. These two costs account for 15%-20% of the entire machine, forcing terminal selling prices to rise, directly suppressing some consumer demand. In addition, the Spring Festival holiday affects the channel stocking cycle and further disturbs the balance of supply and demand.

Under the policy of “maximum subsidy of 15% and upper limit of 1,500 yuan”, the market shows an obvious K-shaped differentiation. High-end models worth over RMB 10,000 benefited from full subsidies, and their sales share rose to 9.4%, a year-on-year increase of 2.4 percentage points. Eco-flagship and professional creative models became the main force. At the same time, the entry-level market priced below 6,000 yuan is also active, with a share of 53%, a year-on-year increase of 4.4 percentage points, anchoring the education and office scene with entry-level AI thin and light notebooks.

Although the overall market is cold, technological upgrading is still advancing. The AI ​​PC penetration rate is close to 45%, and 32GB memory and large-capacity solid-state drives have become mainstream configurations. The adoption rate of OLED panels has exceeded 10%, and it is sinking into the mid-range market – the sales volume of OLED products in the price range of 4,000-6,000 yuan accounts for 48%, an increase of 25 percentage points from the same period last year. As Samsung Display and BOE's new production lines continue to mass-produce, OLED penetration rate is expected to exceed 15% in 2026.

In terms of brand structure, Lenovo leads the way with a cliff-edge advantage, followed closely by HP and Asus. Mechanical Revolution, Apple, etc. perform well in the segmented tracks.

Luotu Technology analyzes that this round of adjustment is not a short-term fluctuation, but a mid- to long-term process of reallocation of supply chain resources and inclusiveness of AI technology. It is expected that after the storage capacity returns to the consumer side in Q4 of 2026, the industry will usher in a window for recovery, and the two-wheel drive of AI and display technology will become the core driving force through the cycle.