Surging memory impact: global PC market shipments expected to drop 12% in 2026

[ Gearbest Technology News]On March 11, according to the latest forecast released by Omdia, global shipments of desktops, notebooks and workstations are expected to decline by 12% year-on-year in 2026, with the total volume shrinking to 245 million units.

The report pointed out that the core driving force of this market downturn is the uncontrolled increase in component costs. Omdia predicts that memory prices will increase by at least 60% in the first quarter of 2026, and will continue to face price increase pressure in the remaining quarters of the year. Since the first quarter of 2025, the cost of mainstream memory and storage configurations has surged by US$90 to US$165, which has put tremendous financial pressure on PC manufacturers, forcing them to reduce promotional activities, increase product selling prices, and even adjust hardware configurations to maintain profits.

Omdia analysis believes that the current forecast has downside risks of further deterioration. If memory and storage shortages intensify, leading to steeper price increases, the decline in global PC shipments may expand to 15% or even worse.

From the perspective of product structure, PCs at different price points have significantly different degrees of impact. As low-priced products have limited ability to absorb cost increases and their users are more sensitive to price fluctuations, shipments of PCs priced below US$500 are expected to plummet by approximately 28% to approximately 62.1 million units in 2026. Ben Yeh, chief analyst at Omdia, said: “In the case of supply shortages, PC manufacturers will inevitably prioritize ensuring the supply of components for high-end products. This is the preferred strategy to mitigate the impact on business. Low-priced products not only rely on low-capacity, old-generation components, but also have a low priority in supply allocation.”

In contrast, the high-end market priced at US$900 and above has shown strong resilience, and shipments in this segment may even maintain slight growth. Not only can this group of users better absorb rising costs, some consumers and businesses are also willing to accept higher prices to meet their immediate needs.

Different operating system platforms will also face completely different fates in this storm. Windows PCs, which account for 83% of global shipments, are expected to decline by 12%, bearing the main impact of tight supply. Chrome devices, which are mainly in the education market, are the most severely affected and are expected to plummet 28% due to their lower profit margins and greater vulnerability to component discontinuation.

Thanks to its vertically integrated supply chain and high-end market positioning, Apple's Mac decline is expected to be relatively modest at 5%. It is worth noting that PCs based on HarmonyOS are becoming a new variable in the market. Omdia research manager Kieren Jessop pointed out that as Huawei accelerates its ecological layout in the Chinese market, HarmonyOS PC is expected to achieve tenfold year-on-year growth on a small base, becoming a growth highlight in a bleak market.

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