Memory prices rise! Global laptop shipments are expected to plummet 14.8% in the first quarter

[ Gearbest Technology News]On January 26, according to TrendForce’s latest survey, global notebook computer brands have faced pressure from significant increases in memory prices since the second half of 2025. In early 2026, they will also encounter phased supply gaps and price increases for CPUs. Coupled with the simultaneous rise in the cost of components including PCBs, batteries, power management ICs and other components, it is estimated that global notebook computer shipments will decrease by 14.8% in the first quarter of 2026.

According to Gearbest, the CPU accounts for about 15-30% of the total BOM cost of a laptop, depending on the specifications of the laptop. At present, most products in the low-end and mainstream price ranges still mainly use Intel CPUs. However, due to the increase in prices of Intel's low-end processors, and the supply gap may not improve slightly until after March, notebook brands are under additional pressure on product configurations and shipment pace.

TrendForce predicts that the contract prices of DRAM and SSD for notebook computers will increase by more than 80% and 70% respectively in the first quarter of 2026. The upward trend is higher than expected. In addition, notebook computer brands will actively ship from the fourth quarter of 2025, resulting in a rapid decline in the number of weeks of memory inventory. However, starting from the first quarter of 2026, due to the brand's supply satisfaction rate at original memory manufacturers declining, the flexibility in developing memory supply sources has been limited, which has affected production schedules and shipment rhythms.

TrendForce pointed out that the cost of another component, PCB, has also been pushed up due to factors such as increased design complexity and soaring copper prices. As the number of motherboard layers increases due to the upgrade of mid- to high-end notebook computer specifications, the gradual increase in PCB costs will become a structural trend.

In addition, TrendForce predicts that global notebook computer shipments will expand to an annual decrease of 9.4% in 2026 from the previously estimated 5.4% annual decrease.

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