Global mobile phone + PC shipments will plummet by more than 10% in 2026. The reason is chips

[ Gearbest Technology News]Recently, IDC updated its global PC and mobile phone market forecasts. The data shows that the overall situation has deteriorated significantly compared with previous expectations, and the impact of tight memory supply is more severe than the most pessimistic scenario forecast a few months ago.

At the end of 2025, as DRAM and NAND prices are expected to rise, PC and smartphone manufacturers have stocked up in advance. This move will significantly increase shipments in the fourth quarter of 2025, and the high shipment level will continue into the PC market in the first quarter of 2026. OEMs are accelerating shipments in order to complete sales before storage prices rise across the board, so PC shipments in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to be significantly higher than previously forecast. However, the smartphone market situation is more severe, with a year-on-year decline of 6.8% expected in the first quarter of 2026. Some smaller companies have encountered challenges in ensuring storage supply or bearing costs.

IDC expects PC and smartphone unit shipments to decline significantly starting in the second quarter. While average selling prices (ASPs) will rise, demand will be subdued. Full-year unit shipments will show negative year-over-year growth, even if revenue appears to be relatively stable due to rising ASP.

Specifically, global shipments of the PC market are expected to drop by 11.3% in 2026, but due to rising ASP, revenue will increase by 1.6%, and the recovery time will be postponed to 2028. The smartphone market is even more severe, with global shipments falling by 12.9% and revenue falling by 0.5% in 2026. It is expected to grow by 1.9% in 2027 and rebound to 5.2% in 2028.

Storage supply challenges may continue until 2027, and although price increases may slow down, they will continue to rise and remain high. Structural factors still exist in the competition between AI infrastructure demand and consumer equipment for the same DRAM and NAND production capacity. Although storage capacity may expand and the participation of some small and medium-sized Chinese storage suppliers may bring some relief, it is not enough to fundamentally change the trend of the crisis. The downstream effects of the storage crisis are gradually emerging and will reshape the competitive landscape of multiple equipment markets.

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